The 640 MEG Shareware Studio 2/The 640 Meg Shareware Studio CD-ROM Volume II (Data Express)(1993).ISO/diag/hayeisdn.zip/CHALLNGE.TXT

Text File | 1992-04-13 | 14KB | 261 lines

Challenge of the Industries
by Dennis C. Hayes
President, Hayes Microcomputer Products, Inc

Bellcore's Customer Premises Equipment (CPE) Workshop
Atlanta, GA  15 - 16 April 1991

"Waiting for ISDN to Happen..."

        That phrase is a phrase that is seen often -- in magazines we
read -- in speeches we hear or in meetings we attend.   "When will ISDN
happen?"  Our market and product planning departments ask.  Our customers
ask.   The analysts and media make their predictions.

        In the last two years, the magazine articles and speeches are
changing: something has happened.  In the last year people are now
questioning

"WILL ISDN ever happen?"

        As for the question,  "Will ISDN ever  happen?",  we all know the
answer is yes.  ISDN will happen and ISDN is happening.  The countries in
North America cannot afford to allow our communications services to be
incompatible or non-competitive with communications services used by our
companies' and America's global competitors.  ISDN is happening in Europe
and is beginning in Asia and our region of the world cannot afford to be
left out.  ISDN must happen in North America.

        But there is a perception problem and the members of our computer
and telecommunications industries must solve the problems that still
inhibit the commercialization of ISDN.

        If we were to graph the public interest in ISDN, we would see a
"Spike of Expectation" during 1986 - 1987 -- even into 1988.  People
believed that ISDN would make an impact on businesses and were excited
about the possibilities of using this technology.  But when the
expectations were not met,  excitement was followed by a "Valley of
Disappointment."  We must begin building the excitement again -- but at a
realistic level of steady growth -- where the public interest matches the
industry's capability.   A steady growth of capability over the next year
or two will rebuild confidence.  We must provide concrete and tangible
evidence of this steady growth of ISDN deployment on an ongoing basis.
Keep in mind the person who has to make the decision to buy the service.
What makes the MIS Manager or Telecommunications Manager buy the service
and products that implement ISDN?  What makes them convince the CIO that
ISDN is worth the investment?

        The COS (Corporation for Open Systems) announcement about ISDN 1
has rekindled public interest and is a step in the right direction, but we
and all of our colleagues in the industry must remove the real and
perceived barriers to successful commercialization.

        Part of the problem that caused the "Valley of Disappointment"
comes simply from the concept of time in the computer industry being so
different from the concept of time in the telecommunications industry.

        The computer industry:  predominantly data oriented -- and not
regulated.   People expect computer technology to change rapidly and it
usually does.    It is much easier for the computer industry to develop
new products because they do not face the barriers that the
telecommunications industry faces.

        Look at local area networking.  It took several years but it was
fairly easy for the computer industry to bring that technology into
businesses.  LANs were  market and technology-driven applications that
faced no regulatory barriers.

        The telephone industry, on the other hand, is a much older
industry that is affected by a number of restraints which throttle change:
compatibility with the existing network and the federal and state
regulatory barriers -- just to name two.

        The telephone industry's roots are with voice services to
residential customers even though data traffic is rapidly growing.   There
is less understanding of data services and very little understanding of
the integration of voice and data by most employees in North American
telephone companies.

        So the two different cultures must meet.  And ISDN needs to bring
the merger of these two industries together very quickly.  ISDN is causing
a tighter coupling, tighter integration -- particularly with the
integration of voice and data -- making computers and telecommunications
come together faster.

        But as we all know -- there are barriers we face.  In March 1988,
I gave a speech for an ISDN User's Group here in Atlanta on "Removing the
Barriers to ISDN."  I am sure that many of you have heard or have made a
similar speech:  All of us must work to overcome the barriers, from those
in the industry who provide the service and equipment to the customers who
use the service and buy the products.   It is our job to motivate the
customers.

        ISDN is being limited.  Limited by service availability, the
regulatory environment, tariffs, incompatibility between products,
complexity of provisioning and installation, and knowledge about
deployment -- just to name a few of the barriers.  Deployment plans and
capital budget are crucial elements that throttle the retooling of the
telephone company workforce.

        Service providers must rethink the way they develop and deploy
technology.  If they want to play an increasing role in the rapidly
growing data market, the telephone companies will learn to think of
central offices as  "data centers."

        CPE vendors must evaluate and revise the way they develop and
provide equipment to users,  as well as the way the applications get
implemented to use the service.

          And as we begin to break down these barriers we must focus on
our customers' needs, keeping in mind the person who has to make the
decision to buy the service and equipment.  We must offer the service and
products that make communications more efficient and  cost effective,  and
that give the user a competitive advantage in his business.

        But, how can we expect a customer to implement ISDN today?   We
make it difficult for the MIS Manager or Telecommunications Manager to buy
the service and our products.  An MIS Director cannot plan a nation-wide
or global network for their company because he cannot easily determine
where service is available now -- and more importantly when service will
be deployed during his planning horizon. And, there is no direct single
place to go to find the answer.  Very few user companies are US-based
only.  And certainly very few companies are based only in one service
area.   So an MIS Director is faced with going to a multitude of sources
to collect data just to evaluate if ISDN is a viable technology for an
important application and no one can tell him where to find all the needed
information.

        People in the communications business must communicate and share
information.    With the two industries working together we can leverage
our technical expertise to benefit our customers.

        ISDN is technically successful and working today even though
improvements will be made as standards evolve.  What is needed now is the
ability for cooperative competition to allow the successful
commercialization in the North American markets.  Customer needs can be
met by cooperative behavior between competitors which will remove real or
perceived barriers that the customer faces.

        The Japanese understand cooperative competition.  Look at the
development of the VHS tape player.  The modem industry understands
cooperative competition.   The development of CCITT V.42bis is an example
of cooperative competition, where companies worked together to offer the
public the best technical solution for compression in modems.

        It is time to ask our legal departments how we can work together
rather than allowing them to say that we can't.  There are areas such as
standards, sharing information with customers, and removing the barriers
where we can legally work together without crossing the line into areas
where we compete for business.

        ISDN commercialization takes a great deal of team work from all
of us:  Service Providers; Switch Vendors; CPE Vendors; Applications
Developers; Resellers.  And, we must always be focusing on the end user
and their needs.  Our goal as an industry should be to provide total
customer satisfaction -- which will mean offering a range of solutions.

        Some of the visionary people in the two industries believe that
fiber optics and broadband ISDN are the future.  Basic Rate Access (BRA)
and Primary Rate Access (PRA) have their places.  BRA can offer a range of
applications that can create the desktop telecomputing environment that
starts the shift from the paper-based office to one that is
electronically-based.

        Today the Xerox copier and the fax machine support the
paper-based office.   Basic Rate ISDN is the technology which can initiate
a wide-area change in multiple locations and to electronic-based
communications.

        Trends show that businesses are changing.    They need to be more
competitive in the global marketplace.  They require a shorter cycle time
from decision making to implementation and they can no longer act as a
single unit.  A business must work together with multiple enterprises.
ISDN can be a major catalyst that transforms businesses today and brings
people into the equation.

        I believe that the integrated services and performance of ISDN
will fundamentally change the way people and businesses communicate.  ISDN
is not a faster modem.  It is not a "nicer" telephone.  It is not easier
wide-area, dial-up switched 56K digital circuit and packet communications.
 It is the  combination of these things offered economically, worldwide,
that are the ingredients for an "office revolution" and a new market for
all of our industries.

        ISDN can fuel the transition to an electronically-based office.
Things are happening in the computer industry -- large screen workstations
from companies such as Sun, HP, DEC, Apple and IBM.  Applications like IBM
Office Vision, AT&T's Rhapsody, and Lotus Notes.   Workstations are no
longer for "data" processing -- they are for information processing and
with the integration of voice and data,  information processing can be
brought to a new level of interaction between the people who make
decisions and take action based on the information.

        I am sure when the copier was first developed, no one imagined
how businesses would change -- with the ability of the printing press at
their immediate disposal.  We in the ISDN industry can just begin to think
about what can happen with true multimedia integration.  With voice and
data integration, people will be able to work on documents together -- no
matter where they are located.

        Much of my company's focus has been on developing products that
provide the platform for good integration of voice and data --- not just
products for voice -- or products for data.

        And, we realize the importance of applications developers, the
people who understand how work is done in an insurance company, a
transportation company, a retailer, or manufacturing company.  These are
the people that have to drive the implementation of applications for the
end user and can assist us in exploring the integration of voice and data.
 We need those people who understand the way businesses work to develop
the applications needed by real users who don't yet know how multimedia
integration can change their ability to get work done.

        We have developed PC adapters for the computer to work with the
service and we have focused on the program interfaces (the Hayes Standard
AT Command Set for ISDN and the Hayes ISDNBIOS).  These interfaces give
applications developers a platform to write their programs and provide the
connection between the CPE and the computer.

        We strongly believe that it is the applications that will make
customers want to use any  service.   ISDN will be successfully
implemented only when our customers perceive it as faster and better, and
offering improved price performance and giving them some real advantage
over their existing telecom and datacom solutions.  ISDN must allow our
customers to meet their needs of today but also allow them to take a large
step forward in doing difficult tasks more easily.  ISDN must provide
reasonably priced applications that are not readily available today with
alternative or bypass communications solutions.

        Our challenge is to bring our two industries together and to make
ISDN happen.  To remove the barriers.  Don't just create another spike of
expectation and excitement.

        This afternoon the computer industry has an incredible
opportunity  -- the opportunity to work together with the
telecommunications industry to make ISDN happen.  For CPE vendors,
applications developers, switch manufacturers and telecommunications
service providers to work together to launch a new technology which will
bring competitive advantage to our North American customers, and fulfill
user needs for easily accessed, integrated, efficient, and cost effective
integrated communications.

        A simple concept:  customers and suppliers working together
letting each other know what they need to make something happen.

        Bellcore has given both industries this workshop to begin the
talks and to open the lines of discussion between the two industries.
And, going forward, they will continue to play this role through their
Resource Personnel.

        Together the two industries can make ISDN a reality.

        Just as we heard for six or seven years "This is the year of the
LAN"  announced by our or another of the LAN company's CEO's, there were
six or seven years of the LAN leading to the success we see today.
Today's  LAN is an  important business tool.

        If we grasp the opportunity Bellcore has given the industry here
today on top of all that is already being done throughout the industry,
then surely we will be able to look back and say 1991 was the first year
we claim "This is the year of ISDN."